Good morning. Anthropic made its IPO filing public on Monday, and the companies that sell it chips had their best day in a month. The prospectus has two headline numbers: $16.3 billion in revenue in the first half of 2026, and an $80.7 billion net loss (Anthropic S-1). Brazil had a very different Monday. Futures are mixed as of ~3:53 AM ET, with Nasdaq-100 futures down 0.4% (CNBC), and the Fed's two-day meeting starts today.
📊 THE OVERNIGHT SNAPSHOT
Stocks, VIX and yields are Monday's close. Futures, oil and gold as of ~3:53 AM ET Tuesday vs. Monday's settle. Dollar index and crypto as of ~4:03 AM ET (crypto vs. its 24-hour open). Nikkei and Kospi are Tuesday's close; Hang Seng is late Tuesday session as of ~3:48 AM ET. Stoxx 600 is Monday's close.
One-line read: One filing put chips back in charge, and the 10-year sat at 5% waiting for the Fed.
Market | Last | Change |
|---|---|---|
S&P 500 futures | 7,705.75 | ▼ 8.75 pts (−0.11%) |
Nasdaq-100 futures | 29,324.75 | ▼ 112.50 pts (−0.38%) |
Dow futures | 52,560 | ▲ 10 pts (+0.02%) |
S&P 500 | 7,676.77 | ▲ 0.70% (+53.09) |
Nasdaq Composite | 26,169.38 | ▲ 0.83% (+214.04) |
Dow | 52,361.58 | ▲ 0.28% (+146.42) |
Russell 2000 | 2,786.42 | ▲ 0.38% (+10.52) |
Chip index (SOX) | 11,083.47 | ▲ 2.82% (+304.01) |
VIX | 18.39 | ▼ 1.06 pts |
US 10Y yield | 5.00% | Unchanged |
US 2Y yield | 4.68% | ▼ 1 bp |
WTI oil (Dec) | $102.25 | ▲ 0.5% (vs. $101.76 Mon settle) |
Brent oil (Dec) | $116.20 | ▲ 0.3% (vs. $115.81 Mon settle) |
Gold | $4,016.70 | ▼ 0.5% (vs. $4,038.40 Mon settle) |
Dollar index (DXY) | 102.17 | ▲ 0.20% |
Bitcoin | $79,781 | ▼ 0.4% |
Ether | $2,314 | ▼ 0.4% |
Nikkei 225 (Tue close) | 63,268.37 | ▲ 1.73% (+1,078.72) |
Kospi (Tue close) | 5,638.34 | ▲ 3.09% (+168.87) |
Hang Seng (Tue, late) | 23,005.71 | ▼ 0.89% (−206.10) |
Stoxx 600 (Mon close) | 640.66 | ▲ 0.77% (+4.89) |
🌙 WHAT HAPPENED WHILE YOU SLEPT
Anthropic Filed. Chips Had Their Day.
Anthropic, the maker of the Claude AI models, made its IPO filing public Monday and plans to list on the Nasdaq under the ticker "ANT" (Anthropic S-1). Revenue was $16.29 billion in the first six months of 2026, up 1,300% from $1.16 billion a year earlier (Anthropic S-1). The S&P 500 rose 0.70% to 7,676.77, the Nasdaq 0.83% to 26,169.38 and the Dow 0.28% to 52,361.58 (Reuters). "Today's all about the Anthropic release," said JP Powers of RWA Wealth Partners (Reuters).
The numbers: The Philadelphia chip index rose 2.8%, its biggest one-day jump in a month, though it is still down 12.2% in October (Reuters). Nvidia gained 2.4%, AMD 2.8%, Micron 3.0% and Broadcom 2.3% (CNBC). Optical-networking names led: Lumentum rose 8.2% and Coherent 5.8% (CNBC). Tech was the best of the 11 S&P 500 sectors, up 1.5% (Reuters). Tesla rose 5.2% to its highest close in more than three months after a Barclays upgrade (Reuters). Communication services lagged: Meta fell 1.9% (more in Thing #2), and Verizon fell 3.5% after third-quarter revenue of $34.3 billion missed the $34.8 billion analysts expected, even as earnings beat and the company raised its 2026 profit guidance (CNBC). Advancers beat decliners on the NYSE by 1.36 to 1, and volume was below its 20-day average (Reuters).
Why it matters: The S-1 is the first full look at the finances of one of the AI labs that buys all those chips. If you own an S&P 500 or Nasdaq-100 fund, you already own its partners: Claude is sold through Amazon's, Google's and Microsoft's cloud platforms, Broadcom supplies AI accelerators under a lease (Anthropic S-1), and Anthropic has more than $600 billion in compute commitments (Reuters). The price and share count are not set yet; some investors are valuing the company at about $1.5 trillion, and the listing is expected before Thanksgiving (Reuters).
What to watch: The rally is cooling before the open: S&P 500 futures are down 0.11% and Nasdaq-100 futures 0.38%, while Dow futures are flat (+0.02%) as of ~3:53 AM ET (CNBC). Anthropic's own filing says it does not expect revenue to keep growing at comparable rates (Anthropic S-1). A rare case of a company lowering expectations before anyone asked.
🔑 3 THINGS TO KNOW BEFORE THE OPEN
1. The Fed's meeting starts today.
The Federal Reserve's two-day meeting begins today; the decision comes Wednesday at 2:00 PM ET, followed by Chair Kevin Warsh's press conference at 2:30 PM ET (Federal Reserve). The target range is 3.75%–4.00% (FRED). CME's FedWatch tool put the chance of a hike this week at 12.7% (CME FedWatch via Reuters) and the chance of at least one hike by year-end at nearly 75% (CME FedWatch via CNBC). September consumer prices rose 3.7% from a year earlier (CNBC). The 10-year Treasury yield closed unchanged at 5.00% Monday (US Treasury). Today also brings September durable-goods orders at 8:30 AM ET and new-home sales at 10:00 AM ET (Census Bureau), the Conference Board's October consumer confidence index at 10:00 AM ET (September read 81.9) and a $70 billion 5-year note auction at 1:00 PM ET (US Treasury).
Why it matters: Another hike would lift what savings accounts pay and what credit card balances cost. Freddie Mac's 30-year mortgage average is 7.32% (Freddie Mac via FRED).
2. Wall Street found new ways to pay for AI.
Meta announced a plan to raise about $95 billion: roughly $35 billion now through common stock ($22.5 billion) and mandatory convertible preferred stock ($12.5 billion), then about $60 billion over time by selling shares at market prices (Meta). Reuters called it the largest equity fundraising ever. Late Monday, Meta priced the deal: it raised the common-stock portion to $25 billion at $625 a share, below Monday's $630.56 close, and the preferred shares will pay a 6.50% dividend (Meta; CNBC). Meta expects $135 billion to $145 billion of capital spending this year (Meta), and Nvidia, AMD and Broadcom have indicated interest in buying up to $5 billion of the shares (CNBC). Separately, Bank of America, Blackstone, Citi and Morgan Stanley set up a $63 billion financing vehicle to buy Broadcom AI chips and networking gear and lease them to Anthropic, with deliveries starting in 2027 (Broadcom).
Why it matters: Meta is one of the largest weights in an S&P 500 fund. Selling new shares means existing holders own a slightly smaller slice of the company, which is why the stock fell on a day the rest of tech rose.
3. Brazil had its worst day since 2020.
After President Lula's re-election, Brazil's Bovespa fell 13.9%, its biggest drop since March 2020, with a 30-minute trading halt after a 10% decline (Reuters). The real fell 8.1% to 5.415 per dollar, its largest daily drop since at least 2002, and Brazil's Treasury cancelled bond auctions set for today and Thursday (Reuters). The iShares MSCI Brazil ETF closed down 19.8%, Petrobras' US shares 14.0% and Itaú's 20.4% (CNBC).
Why it matters: Brazil is one of the larger countries in most emerging-markets index funds, so this is where a 401(k) would feel it. Monday showed how fast an election result can reprice a whole market: stocks, currency and bonds at once.
📈 CHART OF THE DAY
Anthropic's sales finally outran its compute bill. In every full year from 2023 to 2025, Anthropic spent more on computing power than it took in. In 2025, compute and infrastructure costs were 1.6 times revenue. In the first half of 2026, that flipped: revenue was 1.8 times compute costs, and six months of sales were more than three times all of 2025's (our math).
Source: Anthropic, PBC Form S-1 filed with the SEC Oct. 26, 2026, consolidated statements of operations; "compute and infrastructure" is an operating expense line. H1 2026 = six months ended June 30, 2026.
⚡ QUICK HITS
Deals: EQT agreed to buy Range Resources in an all-stock deal worth more than $50 billion; Range rose 17.7% and EQT fell 1.4% (CNBC). Instacart rose 7.9% and DoorDash fell 6.1% after The Wall Street Journal reported acquisition talks between the two (CNBC).
After hours: Celestica rose 16.8% after raising its full-year profit forecast; Whirlpool fell 8.8% after cutting its revenue outlook to $14.5 billion from $15 billion; JetBlue, down 9.7% in the regular session, rose 6.8% after reporting (CNBC).
Oil: Brent settled at $115.81, down 0.78%, and WTI at $101.76, down 1.46% (Reuters). Both turned higher overnight, with WTI up 0.5% and Brent 0.3% as of ~3:53 AM ET (CNBC). The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve is at 282.6 million barrels, its lowest since 1982 (CNBC).
Asia: Seoul's Kospi closed up 3.09% and Japan's Nikkei 1.73%, following Wall Street's chip rally; SK Hynix rose 5.18%, Samsung Electronics 4.23% and SoftBank Group 4.95% (Reuters). South Korea's economy grew 1.0% in the third quarter, beating the 0.7% forecast (Reuters).
Europe: The Stoxx 600 rose 0.77% Monday, and European stock futures were down 0.23% early Tuesday (Reuters). Novartis raised its 2026 profit outlook (CNBC). The ECB decides Thursday and the Bank of Japan Friday (CNBC).
Gold: Spot gold rose 0.46% Monday to $4,013.79 (Reuters); futures are down 0.5% overnight (CNBC).
Crypto: Bitcoin near $79,781 as of ~4:03 AM ET (−0.4% vs. its 24-hour open); Ether near $2,314 (−0.4%) (Coinbase). US bitcoin ETFs had $635.5 million of outflows Friday, the most since June (CNBC).
🧠 EXPLAIN LIKE I'M BUSY
How did Anthropic lose $80.7 billion?
Mostly on paper. Anthropic's operating loss, the gap between revenue and the costs of running the business, was $693 million in the first half of 2026 (Anthropic S-1). About $72.4 billion of the net loss came from one accounting line: changes in the fair value of convertible notes and similar instruments it sold to investors (Anthropic S-1). Those instruments turn into shares later. When a company's value rises, they are worth more, and accounting rules book that increase as a loss, even though no cash leaves the building. Growing fast can make a company look much less profitable on paper. For investors, operating results and cash flow usually tell you more than the bottom line in a filing like this.
🗓️ TODAY'S CATALYSTS (ALL TIMES ET)
Day | Event | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
Tue Oct 27 | Coca-Cola results before the open, call 8:30 AM; Boeing before the open, call 10:30 AM (CNBC) | Consumer demand and a Dow heavyweight. |
Tue | Durable-goods orders (Sept), 8:30 AM; new-home sales (Sept), 10:00 AM (Census Bureau) | Business spending and housing. |
Tue | Consumer confidence (Oct), 10:00 AM (Conference Board) | September fell 6.7 points to 81.9 (Conference Board). |
Tue | FOMC meeting begins; $70 billion 5-year note auction, 1:00 PM (Federal Reserve; US Treasury) | Demand for Treasurys on Fed eve. |
Tue | Robinhood results after the close, call 5:00 PM (CNBC) | Retail trading activity. |
Wed Oct 28 | Fed decision 2:00 PM, Warsh press conference 2:30 PM (Federal Reserve); Alphabet and Microsoft after the close (CNBC) | Rates, and AI spending. |
Thu Oct 29 | Q3 GDP and September PCE inflation, 8:30 AM (BEA); ECB decision (CNBC); Amazon and Intel after the close (CNBC) | Growth, inflation and the last hyperscaler. |
Fri Oct 30 | Bank of Japan decision (CNBC) | Global rates. |
Tue Nov 3 | US midterm elections (Reuters) | Policy backdrop for markets. |
Wed Nov 11 | Veterans Day: bond market closed (SIFMA); stock market open (NYSE) | No Treasury trading that day. |
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That's the desk. See you tomorrow at 6 AM ET.
— The Overnight Desk Team
Note: The Overnight Desk Team may hold positions in assets discussed. Nothing here is investment advice. · Sponsor: No one paid for any mention in this issue.
