Good morning. Chip stocks rose for a third straight day on Tuesday, and the Nasdaq had its best day since Oct. 2 (MarketWatch, citing FactSet). The typical S&P 500 stock barely moved. Today the Fed announces its rate decision at 2:00 PM ET, and Microsoft and Alphabet report after the close. Futures are mixed as of ~3:56 AM ET: Nasdaq-100 futures are up 0.3%, S&P 500 futures are flat and Dow futures are down 0.3% (CNBC).
📊 THE OVERNIGHT SNAPSHOT
Stocks, VIX and yields are Tuesday's close. Futures as of ~3:56 AM ET; oil and gold ~3:52 AM ET and the dollar index ~4:02 AM ET Wednesday, vs. Tuesday's settle. Crypto as of ~4:02 AM ET vs. its 24-hour open. Nikkei and Kospi are Wednesday's closes; Hang Seng is late in Wednesday's session, ~3:51 AM ET. Stoxx 600 is Tuesday's close (Wednesday's open not yet posted).
One-line read: Chips did the lifting, oil gave back its dip overnight, and everything now waits for 2:00 PM ET.
Market | Last | Change |
|---|---|---|
S&P 500 futures | 7,756.50 | ▼ 1.75 pts (−0.02%) |
Nasdaq-100 futures | 29,909.00 | ▲ 97.00 pts (+0.33%) |
Dow futures | 52,410 | ▼ 169 pts (−0.32%) |
S&P 500 | 7,722.60 | ▲ 0.60% (+45.83) |
Nasdaq Composite | 26,477.81 | ▲ 1.18% (+308.43) |
Dow | 52,377.57 | ▲ 0.03% (+15.99) |
Russell 2000 | 2,818.87 | ▲ 1.16% (+32.45) |
Chip index (SOX) | 11,482.50 | ▲ 3.60% (+399.04) |
VIX | 17.52 | ▼ 0.87 pts |
US 10Y yield | 4.99% | ▼ 1 bp |
US 2Y yield | 4.70% | ▲ 2 bp |
WTI oil (Dec) | $102.21 | ▲ 2.3% (vs. $99.90 Tue settle) |
Brent oil (Dec) | $116.32 | ▲ 2.1% (vs. $113.88 Tue settle) |
Gold (Dec) | $4,051.10 | ▼ 0.6% (vs. $4,074.60 Tue settle) |
Dollar index (DXY) | 102.41 | ▲ 0.09% |
Bitcoin | $81,045 | ▲ 1.7% |
Ether | $2,362 | ▲ 2.3% |
Nikkei 225 (Wed close) | 63,954.19 | ▲ 1.08% (+685.82) |
Kospi (Wed close) | 6,012.44 | ▲ 6.63% (+374.10) |
Hang Seng (Wed, late) | 23,103.39 | ▲ 0.27% (+62.07) |
Stoxx 600 (Tue close) | 643.68 | ▲ 0.47% (+3.02) |
🌙 WHAT HAPPENED WHILE YOU SLEPT
Chips Rallied Again. Most Stocks Didn't.
The Philadelphia chip index rose 3.6% on Tuesday, its biggest one-day gain since Sept. 21 and its third straight advance (Reuters; our math from Yahoo Finance closes). Broadcom gained 4.0% after Bank of America, Citi, Morgan Stanley and Blackstone announced $63 billion in financing to buy Broadcom technology for Anthropic (CNBC). The S&P 500 rose 0.60% to 7,722.60, the Nasdaq 1.18% to 26,477.81 and the Dow 0.03% to 52,377.57 (Reuters). "The light switch has been off for the last two weeks," said Jed Ellerbroek of Argent Capital Management, "and it looks like the first two days this week, the switch has been flipped up again" (CNBC).
The numbers: AMD rose 5.5%, Intel 3.6%, Micron 2.8% and Nvidia 0.9% (CNBC). Server and AI-cloud names jumped: Dell gained 7.5%, CoreWeave 7.9% and Nebius 11.2% (CNBC). Only six of the 11 S&P 500 sectors rose. Tech led, up 1.5%, and energy was worst, down 2%, as oil fell (Reuters). Boeing fell 10.7%, its worst day in more than 18 months, and was the biggest drag on the Dow (Reuters; CNBC). The equal-weight S&P 500, which gives every company the same vote, rose 0.08% (CNBC), and most S&P 500 stocks fell (AP).
Why it matters: If you own an S&P 500 fund, Tuesday's gain came from a small group of large AI-related companies. The index is now 1.2% below its Oct. 6 record of 7,818.93 (AP; FRED). The chip index is up 62.1% this year against 12.8% for the S&P 500, but it is still more than 20% below its June 22 record (Reuters). That is why a three-day bounce can feel big in a tech-heavy 401(k) without changing the bigger picture.
What to watch: As of ~3:56 AM ET, Nasdaq-100 futures are up 0.33%, S&P 500 futures are flat, and Dow futures are down 0.32% (CNBC). The index had a good day. The average stock had a Tuesday.
🔑 3 THINGS TO KNOW BEFORE THE OPEN
1. The Fed decides at 2:00 PM ET.
The Federal Reserve ends its two-day meeting today, with the decision at 2:00 PM ET and Chair Kevin Warsh's press conference at 2:30 PM ET (Federal Reserve). The target range is 3.75%–4.00% after September's quarter-point hike, the Fed's first increase since July 2023 (FRED). CME's FedWatch tool puts the chance of no change today at 90.6%, with a 9.4% chance of a quarter-point hike and no chance of a cut (CME FedWatch, 3:38 AM ET). JPMorgan analysts expect at least two dissents in favor of tighter policy (Reuters). Bank of America's economists stand alone in calling for a hike, and Reuters notes that another 75 basis points of tightening is expected over the next year. This is not one of the meetings with new Fed projections (Federal Reserve). The 10-year Treasury yield slipped 1 bp to 4.99% Tuesday, back under 5%, while the 2-year rose 2 bp to 4.70% (US Treasury). Overnight the 10-year is at 5.01% (CNBC, ~4:02 AM ET). The Bank of Canada also decides today, at 9:45 AM ET (Bank of Canada).
Why it matters: A hold keeps savings yields and credit card rates where they are for now. A hint at December would show up first in the 2-year yield, which tends to move with the Fed. Freddie Mac's 30-year mortgage average is 7.32% (Freddie Mac via FRED).
2. Microsoft and Alphabet report tonight.
Both report after the close: Alphabet's call is at 4:30 PM ET and Microsoft's at 5:30 PM ET (CNBC). Analysts expect revenue growth of about 25% at Alphabet and 16.8% at Microsoft (LSEG via CNBC). Reuters estimates that Microsoft, Alphabet and Amazon, which reports Thursday, have nearly $1.7 trillion of combined backlog and plan to spend as much as $600 billion this year. On Tuesday, Alphabet rose 1.2% to $320.58 and Microsoft slipped 0.2% to $531.33 (CNBC). Meta fell 1.6% after raising its share sale plan to $97.5 billion (Reuters); Bloomberg reported that the $25 billion common-stock piece drew about five times as many orders as there were shares.
Why it matters: That spending is the chip industry's revenue. If you own an S&P 500 or Nasdaq-100 fund, you own both sides of the trade: the companies spending the money and the ones receiving it.
3. Oil dipped below $100, then bounced.
US crude (WTI) settled down 1.83% at $99.90 on Tuesday and Brent down 1.67% at $113.88, after Iran's supreme leader met his top security official to discuss conditions for ending the war (Reuters). Overnight, WTI is back at $102.21, up 2.3%, and Brent is at $116.32, up 2.1%, as of ~3:52 AM ET (CNBC). Yemen's Houthis said they hit Saudi Arabia's largest refinery, Ras Tanura (550,000 barrels a day), with a missile; as of Reuters' latest update overnight, Saudi authorities had not confirmed the strike. Industry data showed US crude stocks fell 2.03 million barrels last week, while analysts polled by Reuters expected a small rise (Reuters). Refiners fell hardest Tuesday: Valero dropped 9.2% (CNBC). Weekly US oil inventories are due at 10:30 AM ET (EIA).
Why it matters: Gasoline is where oil reaches a household budget. Gas prices are down nearly 20 cents a gallon from late September (EIA via CNBC), and the Conference Board tied October's jump in consumer confidence to easing gasoline prices (CNBC).
📈 CHART OF THE DAY
Chips bounced 7%. They're still 21% below June. The chip index closed at 11,482 on Tuesday, up 7.0% from its Oct. 22 low over three sessions, its biggest three-day gain since September (our math). For context, it is still 21.5% below its June 22 record of 14,635, and 9.1% lower for October so far. Notice the shape of the year: the index nearly doubled between the end of March and the June peak, then gave back about a fifth. It is still up 62.1% since Dec. 31.
Source: PHLX Semiconductor index (^SOX) daily closes via Yahoo Finance, data through Oct. 27, 2026; Tuesday's close matches CNBC. Our math.
⚡ QUICK HITS
Earnings: UPS rose 5.8% after beating forecasts and raising its full-year revenue outlook to about $92.6 billion from $91.2 billion (CNBC). SoFi jumped 13.4% after beating and raising guidance, and JetBlue rose 19.0% despite a bigger-than-expected loss, as it pointed to wider margins in the fourth quarter (CNBC). Boeing's revenue was $24.2 billion and its backlog a record $745 billion, but it will miss its 500-jet 737 delivery target this year (Boeing; Reuters).
After hours: Enphase fell 15.5% after its fourth-quarter revenue forecast of $225 million to $255 million came in under the $297.6 million analysts expected (CNBC). Robinhood fell 7.6%, NXP 7.3% and Seagate 5.5%; Manhattan Associates rose 10.3% and PPG 7.0% after raising forecasts (CNBC, quotes ~8:00 PM ET).
Economy: The Conference Board's consumer confidence index rose 7.5 points to 91.7 in October, well above the 81 economists expected (CNBC). September durable-goods orders rose 1.8%, against 1.7% expected (CNBC). Tuesday's 5-year note auction drew a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.33, in line with the average of the last 12 sales (Reuters).
Asia: Seoul's Kospi closed up 6.63% at 6,012.44, its first close above 6,000 since Oct. 14, and the Korea Exchange briefly paused program trading as stocks surged (CNBC; Yahoo Finance). SK Hynix shares closed 10.89% higher after record quarterly sales and profit and plans to return about 100 trillion won to shareholders (CNBC). Japan's Nikkei closed up 1.08% and SoftBank Group rose 4.65% (CNBC).
World: Israel's Tuesday election showed no clear winner in early counting, with neither main bloc near the 61 seats needed for a majority; definitive results are likely Thursday (Reuters).
Europe: The Stoxx 600 rose 0.47% Tuesday while London's FTSE 100 fell 0.75% (CNBC). Euro Stoxx 50 futures were 0.03% lower early Wednesday (Reuters). The UK's Autumn Budget is due today (CNBC).
Crypto: Bitcoin is near $81,045 as of ~4:02 AM ET, up 1.7% from its 24-hour open, and Ether is near $2,362, up 2.3% (Coinbase).
Wildcard: General Motors will move its stock listing from the NYSE to the Nasdaq on Nov. 17, part of its push to be seen as a technology company (CNBC). Same cars, new exchange.
🧠 EXPLAIN LIKE I'M BUSY
Why did the "equal-weight" S&P 500 barely move?
The regular S&P 500 weights each company by its market value, so the biggest companies count the most. The equal-weight version gives all 500 the same 0.2% slice. On Tuesday, the regular index rose 0.60% and the equal-weight one rose 0.08% (CNBC). That gap tells you the gain came from a few large companies, mostly AI and chip names, while the typical stock was flat to down. Most S&P 500 index funds track the regular, market-value version. When a few giants have a good day, your fund has one too, even if most of the companies in it did not.
🗓️ TODAY'S CATALYSTS (ALL TIMES ET)
Day | Event | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
Wed Oct 28 | Advance trade, retail and wholesale inventories (Sept), 8:30 AM (Census Bureau) | Feeds Thursday's GDP estimate. |
Wed | Bank of Canada decision, 9:45 AM (Bank of Canada); UK Autumn Budget (CNBC) | Global rates backdrop. |
Wed | EIA weekly oil inventories, 10:30 AM (EIA); $30 billion 2-year floating-rate note auction, 11:30 AM (US Treasury) | Oil after a volatile week; Treasury demand. |
Wed | Fed decision, 2:00 PM; Warsh press conference, 2:30 PM (Federal Reserve) | Markets expect a hold; the focus is December. |
Wed | Alphabet (call 4:30 PM), Ford (call 5:00 PM) and Microsoft (call 5:30 PM) after the close (CNBC) | AI spending and cloud growth. |
Thu Oct 29 | Q3 GDP (advance) and September PCE inflation, 8:30 AM (BEA); ECB decision (CNBC); Caterpillar and Eli Lilly before the open, Amazon and Intel after the close (CNBC); $44 billion 7-year note auction, 1:00 PM (US Treasury) | Growth, inflation and the last hyperscaler. |
Fri Oct 30 | Bank of Japan decision (CNBC) | Global rates. |
Tue Nov 3 | US midterm elections (Reuters) | Policy backdrop for markets. |
Wed Nov 11 | Veterans Day: bond market closed (SIFMA); stock market open (NYSE) | No Treasury trading that day. |
No market holidays this week: NYSE and SIFMA are both on normal hours through Friday.
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That's the desk. See you Thursday at 6 AM ET.
— The Overnight Desk Team
Note: The Overnight Desk Team may hold positions in assets discussed. Nothing here is investment advice. · Sponsor: No one paid for any mention in this issue.
