Good morning. Oil did the damage on Friday: Brent crude settled at $116.72, its highest weekly close since June 2022, and the Dow fell 653 points. Over the weekend, Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia continued, and Brent is down about 1% as of ~3:55 AM ET on reports of Qatari mediation in Tehran (Reuters; CNBC). S&P 500 and Dow futures are slightly higher; Nasdaq-100 futures are roughly flat (CNBC). Now comes the week that matters: the Fed on Wednesday, Alphabet and Microsoft that evening, and Amazon on Thursday.
📊 THE OVERNIGHT SNAPSHOT
Stocks, VIX and yields are Friday's close. Futures, oil and gold as of ~3:54 AM ET Monday vs. Friday's settle. Dollar index as of ~4:04 AM ET; crypto as of ~4:02 AM ET (vs. its 24-hour open). Nikkei and Kospi are Monday's close; Hang Seng is Monday's session, late, as of ~3:50 AM ET. Stoxx 600 is Friday's close (Monday's open quotes not yet available at press time).
One-line read: Oil had its best weekly close since 2022, the Dow paid for it, and the 10-year closed right back at 5%.
Market | Last | Change |
|---|---|---|
S&P 500 futures | 7,669.50 | ▲ 9.75 pts (+0.13%) |
Nasdaq-100 futures | 29,092.00 | ▼ 25.75 pts (−0.09%) |
Dow futures | 52,536 | ▲ 142 pts (+0.27%) |
S&P 500 | 7,623.68 | ▼ 0.52% (−39.75) |
Nasdaq Composite | 25,955.34 | ▼ 0.21% (−53.52) |
Dow | 52,215.16 | ▼ 1.23% (−652.82) |
Russell 2000 | 2,775.90 | ▼ 0.29% (−8.13) |
Chip index (SOX) | 10,779.46 | ▲ 0.44% (+47.49) |
VIX | 19.45 | ▲ 0.42 pts |
US 10Y yield | 5.00% | ▲ 4 bp |
US 2Y yield | 4.69% | ▲ 4 bp |
WTI oil (Dec) | $101.65 | ▼ 1.6% (vs. $103.27 Fri settle) |
Brent oil (Dec) | $115.50 | ▼ 1.0% (vs. $116.72 Fri settle) |
Gold | $4,019.80 | ▲ 0.3% (vs. $4,007.90 Fri settle) |
Dollar index (DXY) | 101.79 | ▼ 0.02% |
Bitcoin | $79,892 | ▼ 0.5% |
Ether | $2,313 | ▼ 0.8% |
Nikkei 225 (Mon close) | 62,189.65 | ▼ 0.80% (−503.51) |
Kospi (Mon close) | 5,469.47 | ▼ 1.46% (−80.83) |
Hang Seng (Mon, late) | 23,210.22 | ▲ 0.51% (+116.85) |
Stoxx 600 (Fri close) | 635.77 | ▼ 0.31% (−1.97) |
🌙 WHAT HAPPENED WHILE YOU SLEPT
Oil Climbed. The Dow Lost 653.
Brent crude rose 3.1% Friday to settle at $116.72 a barrel, its highest close since April 29, after Houthi attacks in Saudi Arabia raised fears of more supply disruption (Reuters). US crude (WTI) rose 3.8% to $103.27. The Dow fell 652.82 points, or 1.23%, to 52,215.16; the S&P 500 lost 0.52% to 7,623.68 and the Nasdaq 0.21% to 25,955.34 (Reuters). AP counted nearly three of every four S&P 500 stocks lower. Thursday, tech fell and everything else rose. Friday, the roles swapped.
The numbers: The S&P 500 energy sector rose 2.5% to a record high (Reuters), and Exxon, Chevron and ConocoPhillips touched all-time highs (CNBC). Chips steadied: the Philadelphia chip index rose 0.44%, Micron 2.5% and AMD 1.7% (CNBC). American Express fell 3.7% after announcing it would cut about 5% of its workforce, roughly 3,500 jobs, even as it raised its 2026 profit forecast (Reuters). Caterpillar lost 2.4% and Goldman Sachs 1.8%, adding to the Dow's drop (CNBC). Dollar Tree fell 4.4% and Dollar General 4.6% after Wells Fargo warned that diesel costs, up about 60% from a year ago, will squeeze discount-store margins (CNBC). The equal-weight S&P 500 fell 0.78% (CNBC). For the week, the S&P 500 lost 0.5%, its second straight weekly drop, and the Nasdaq 0.7%; the Dow rose 0.4%, its third straight weekly gain (Reuters; AP).
Why it matters: Oil reaches an S&P 500 fund two ways. Energy companies earn more, and almost everyone else pays more for fuel and freight. On Friday the second effect won. Energy's gain could not offset the losses elsewhere: a consumer-staples ETF fell 1.9%, and financials and consumer names dragged on the Dow (CNBC).
What to watch: Brent is at $115.50 and WTI at $101.65, down 1.0% and 1.6%, as of ~3:54 AM ET (CNBC). Saudi Arabia said Sunday it intercepted more Houthi missiles and drones, and the Houthis said Monday they attacked Saudi Arabia's East-West crude pumping stations and Riyadh's airport; Riyadh had not confirmed it (Reuters). S&P 500 futures are up 0.13% and Dow futures 0.27%; Nasdaq-100 futures are down 0.09% (CNBC).
🔑 3 THINGS TO KNOW BEFORE THE OPEN
1. The Fed decides Wednesday at 2 PM ET.
The Federal Reserve announces its rate decision at 2:00 PM ET Wednesday, and Chair Kevin Warsh holds a press conference at 2:30 PM ET (Federal Reserve). The Fed raised rates in September for the first time since 2023, to a 3.75%–4.00% target (Reuters; FRED). Traders largely expect the Fed to hold this week, and CME's FedWatch tool put the chance of a December hike at 75% early Monday (CME FedWatch via CNBC). The 10-year Treasury yield rose 4 bp Friday to 5.00%, giving back part of Thursday's 17 bp drop (US Treasury). Thursday at 8:30 AM ET brings third-quarter GDP and September's PCE inflation (BEA). Economists see GDP growth at a 3.2% annual pace and core PCE at 3.1% (Reuters).
Why it matters: A December hike would raise the rate on savings accounts and the cost of credit card balances and adjustable loans. Freddie Mac's 30-year mortgage average is 7.32% (Freddie Mac via FRED).
2. Big Tech reports its AI bills.
Alphabet and Microsoft report Wednesday after the close and Amazon on Thursday, among about a third of S&P 500 companies reporting this week (Reuters). Analysts expect $90.6 billion in revenue for Microsoft, $128 billion for Alphabet and $202 billion for Amazon (Reuters). Hyperscaler capital spending is expected to reach about $800 billion this year (Reuters). Intel and Sandisk also report, and S&P 500 third-quarter earnings are on pace to rise more than 32% from a year ago (LSEG data via Reuters). "After Meta's report, there's still anxiety over the AI trade to a certain extent," market strategist Art Hogan said (Reuters).
Why it matters: Microsoft, Alphabet and Amazon are among the largest weights in an S&P 500 or Nasdaq-100 fund. Last week showed what happens when one hyperscaler spooks investors: Meta's report helped push the chip index down 6.7% on Thursday (Reuters).
3. SpaceX borrowed $40 billion for chips.
Elon Musk said Sunday that SpaceX closed $40 billion of debt financing to buy AI chips, mostly callable debt arriving in early 2027 (CNBC). Bloomberg had reported the deal would sit in a separate vehicle to keep it off SpaceX's balance sheet (CNBC). On Friday, SpaceX's wireless plans hit the phone companies: after Bloomberg reported SpaceX was in talks for access to at least 80,000 US cell sites, AT&T fell 8.0%, T-Mobile 7.7% and Verizon 1.2% (CNBC). SpaceX rose 1.9% and tower owner Crown Castle 9.1% (CNBC). Verizon posts third-quarter results around 7:00 AM ET, with a call at 8:30 AM ET (Verizon).
Why it matters: Telecom stocks are staples of dividend and income funds, so a new rival shows up in that part of a 401(k) first. The debt deal adds to Wall Street's question about who funds the AI build-out.
📈 CHART OF THE DAY
Brent just had its highest weekly close since 2022. For context, Brent started 2026 at $60.75 a barrel; Friday's $116.72 is nearly double that. Notice last week: a 6.2% jump took it past its March high to the best weekly close since June 10, 2022.
Source: ICE Brent front-month futures (BZ=F) daily settles via Yahoo Finance, data through Oct. 23, 2026; weekly close = last settle of each week. Our math; matches Reuters.
⚡ QUICK HITS
Brazil: President Lula won Sunday's runoff, 51.8% to 48.2%, and challenger Flávio Bolsonaro refused to concede, saying he would seek to annul the result (Reuters via CNBC). The iShares MSCI Brazil ETF fell nearly 20% in overnight trading before paring the loss to 18% (CNBC).
Asia: Japan's Nikkei closed down 0.8% and Seoul's Kospi 1.5% Monday; Hong Kong's Hang Seng was up 0.5% late in its session (CNBC). The Kospi has lost almost 19% this month (Reuters).
Europe: Moody's kept France at Aa3 with a negative outlook Friday, holding off on a downgrade after France's 10-year yield hit its highest since 2002 last week (CNBC; Reuters). The Stoxx 600 fell 0.31% Friday (CNBC); early Monday, Euro Stoxx 50, DAX and FTSE futures were up 0.3% to 0.4% (Reuters). The ECB decides Thursday and the Bank of Japan Friday (CNBC).
Consumers: The University of Michigan's final October sentiment reading was 48.0, up from a preliminary 46.3, and year-ahead inflation expectations were 4.7% (University of Michigan via CNBC; Reuters).
Movers: Bloom Energy fell 11.2% and Deckers 4.9% (CNBC). Uranium and nuclear ETFs hit 52-week lows (CNBC).
Gold: Futures settled at $4,007.90 Friday, down more than 4% on the week, and are up 0.3% overnight as softer oil eased inflation worries (CNBC; Reuters).
Crypto: Bitcoin near $79,892 as of ~4:02 AM ET (−0.5% vs. its 24-hour open); Ether near $2,313 (−0.8%) (Coinbase).
🧠 EXPLAIN LIKE I'M BUSY
Why did the Dow fall six times as much as the Nasdaq?
The Dow holds 30 stocks and weights them by share price, not company size. A $1 move in any member moves the Dow the same amount, so expensive shares count most. Goldman Sachs closed at $875.68 Friday and American Express at $313.22 (CNBC). A 1% drop in Goldman weighs on the Dow about 2.8 times as much as a 1% drop in AmEx (our math). Friday's selling hit high-priced industrial and financial names, while the tech stocks that dominate the Nasdaq steadied. Result: the Dow fell 1.23% and the Nasdaq 0.21%. Most 401(k) index funds track the S&P 500, which weights by company size instead.
🗓️ TODAY'S CATALYSTS (ALL TIMES ET)
Day | Event | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
Mon Oct 26 | Verizon results ~7:00 AM, call 8:30 AM (Verizon) | First telecom report since the SpaceX cell-site story. |
Mon | Dallas Fed Texas manufacturing survey, 10:30 AM (Dallas Fed) | Factory read from oil country. |
Mon | $69 billion 2-year note auction, 1:00 PM (US Treasury) | Demand for short-term debt ahead of the Fed. |
Tue Oct 27 | FOMC meeting begins; $70 billion 5-year auction, 1:00 PM (Federal Reserve; US Treasury) | Rates. |
Wed Oct 28 | Fed decision 2:00 PM, Warsh press conference 2:30 PM (Federal Reserve); Alphabet and Microsoft after the close (Reuters) | Hike odds for December; AI spending. |
Thu Oct 29 | Q3 GDP and September PCE inflation, 8:30 AM (BEA); ECB decision (CNBC); Amazon reports (Reuters; CNBC) | Growth, inflation and the last hyperscaler. |
This week | Also reporting: Intel, Sandisk, Eli Lilly, Exxon, Chevron, Caterpillar (Reuters) | Chips, drugs and oil profits at $100-plus crude. |
Fri Oct 30 | Bank of Japan decision (CNBC) | Global rates. |
Tue Nov 3 | US midterm elections (Reuters) | Policy backdrop for markets. |
Wed Nov 11 | Veterans Day: bond market closed (SIFMA); stock market open (NYSE) | No Treasury trading that day. |
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— The Overnight Desk Team
Note: The Overnight Desk Team may hold positions in assets discussed. Nothing here is investment advice. · Sponsor: No one paid for any mention in this issue.
