
Good morning. The S&P 500 closed at a record 7,818.93 Tuesday, up 0.6% and above 7,800 for the first time, as the 10-year Treasury yield eased 4 bp to 5.27% (AP; US Treasury). Google supplied the spark: it contracted for about 3.6 gigawatts of power from Constellation Energy, and power stocks lit up (company release; CNBC). A quiet night since: S&P 500 futures are within 0.1% of flat, though the 10-year yield is back up to 5.31% (CNBC).
📊 THE OVERNIGHT SNAPSHOT
Stocks, VIX and yields are Tuesday's close. Futures and oil as of ~3:45 AM ET Wednesday vs. Tuesday's settle. Crypto as of ~3:55 AM ET Wednesday, vs. its 24-hour open. Nikkei is Wednesday's close. Stoxx 600 as of ~3:40 AM ET Wednesday vs. Tuesday's close.
One-line read: A record for the S&P 500 and flat futures, but yields are creeping back up and Asia and Europe are in the red.
Market | Last | Change |
|---|---|---|
S&P 500 futures | 7,873.50 | ▼ 0.5 pts (−0.01%) |
Nasdaq-100 futures | 31,451.00 | ▼ 32.25 pts (−0.10%) |
Dow futures | 51,713 | ▼ 103 pts (−0.20%) |
S&P 500 (Tue close) | 7,818.93 | ▲ 0.6% (+44.98), record |
Nasdaq Composite (Tue) | 27,599.79 | ▲ 0.4% (+122.48), record |
Dow (Tue) | 51,521.28 | ▲ 0.5% (+253.38) |
Russell 2000 (Tue) | 2,830.30 | ▼ 0.6% (−16.84) |
VIX (Tue) | 15.01 | ▼ 0.51 pts |
US 10Y yield (Tue) | 5.27% | ▼ 4 bp |
US 2Y yield (Tue) | 4.79% | ▼ 5 bp |
WTI oil | $89.71 | ▲ 0.3% (vs. $89.44 Tue settle) |
Brent oil | $101.11 | ▲ 0.5% (vs. $100.58 Tue settle) |
Bitcoin | $84,126 | ▼ 1.7% |
Ether | $2,615 | ▼ 3.4% |
Nikkei 225 (Wed close) | 70,035.71 | ▼ 0.9% (−648.27) |
Stoxx 600 (Wed, live) | 633.34 | ▼ 0.5% (−3.29) |
🌙 WHAT HAPPENED WHILE YOU SLEPT
The S&P 500 Finally Beat Its August Record.
The S&P 500 rose 0.6% to 7,818.93 Tuesday, topping its Aug. 13 record close of 7,798.99 and finishing above 7,800 for the first time (AP; Yahoo Finance). The Nasdaq added 0.4% for its second straight record close. It was the S&P's fourth straight gain (CNBC).
The numbers: All 11 sectors but health care rose, led by utilities; the utilities fund XLU gained 3.0%, while the biotech fund XBI fell 3.4% (Reuters; Yahoo Finance). Marvell rose 5.8% after lifting its fiscal 2028 revenue target to about $20 billion from $18 billion, and AMD gained 2.8% after CEO Lisa Su said it plans to substantially increase chip supply in 2027 (Reuters). Nvidia edged up 0.1% to $239.24, another record close (Reuters; Yahoo Finance). Under the hood it was thinner: the Russell 2000 fell 0.6%, Nasdaq gainers beat losers only 2,394 to 2,378, and the Dow is still more than 5% below its Aug. 5 record close (Reuters).
Why it matters: If you own an S&P 500 fund, it closed at a record, carried mostly by the biggest names. Small-cap funds sat this one out. Analysts expect S&P 500 third-quarter earnings to rise 30.6% from a year ago, and the banks start testing that next Tuesday (LSEG via Reuters). A record is a record. This one had a short guest list.
What to watch: Treasury's $39 billion 10-year note sale at 1 PM ET, then the Fed's September minutes at 2 PM ET (TreasuryDirect; Fed).
🔑 3 THINGS TO KNOW BEFORE THE OPEN
1. Bonds exhaled, briefly. Fed minutes at 2 PM.
The 10-year yield fell 4 bp to 5.27% Tuesday, a day after its highest close since May 2002, and the 2-year fell 5 bp to 4.79% (US Treasury). Steadier oil helped, per Reuters. The relief had limits: Treasury's $58 billion 3-year auction cleared at 4.932%, the highest 3-year auction yield since May 2006, with a below-average 2.62 bid-to-cover ratio (Dow Jones; TreasuryDirect). And it faded overnight: the 10-year was back at 5.31% at 3:55 AM ET, up 4 bp, as yields rose in Europe too (CNBC). CME FedWatch put the odds of an October rate hike at 19.4% as of Tuesday, down from 50.9% a week earlier (Reuters). Today's minutes cover the Sep 15–16 meeting, where the Fed raised rates for the first time since 2023.
Why it matters: The minutes show how many officials want more hikes. That sets what your money-market fund pays and pushes on mortgage rates; Freddie Mac's 30-year average was 7.28% last week (Freddie Mac via FRED).
2. A 37% buyout, a fry beat, a beer hangover.
McKesson and private-equity firm CD&R agreed to buy home-infusion provider Option Care Health for $32.05 a share in cash, about $5.8 billion including debt and a 37% premium to Monday's close (company release). The stock rose 32.7% to $31.00 (Yahoo Finance). Lamb Weston rose 7.5% to $47.91 after fiscal first-quarter adjusted EPS of $0.75 beat its own guidance; it raised its full-year outlook to $3.05–$3.35 a share from $2.95–$3.25 (company release; WSJ). After the bell, Constellation Brands beat estimates but held its full-year profit outlook, with Modelo depletions down about 2% and Corona about 5%. Shares fell 4.5% to $110.50 after hours (company release; Yahoo Finance).
Why it matters: Takeover premiums are one way index-fund owners get paid. And beer and fries are a cheap read on the consumer: Constellation's two biggest brands are still selling fewer cases.
3. Tokyo cooled off. Oil warmed up.
The Nikkei closed down 0.9% at 70,035.71 Wednesday, with AI and chip stocks leading the profit-taking after a two-day run of nearly 2,400 points (Nikkei; CNBC). South Korea's Kospi fell 2.0%; mainland China is still closed for Golden Week (Yahoo Finance; CNBC). Europe opened lower, with the Stoxx 600 down 0.5% and Germany's DAX down 0.9%, led by mining and tech (CNBC; Yahoo Finance). Brent settled Tuesday at $100.58, up 0.3%, and WTI settled flat at $89.44 (Dow Jones Market Data). Overnight, Brent was up 0.5% at $101.11 as Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia revived supply worries (Yahoo Finance; CNBC).
Why it matters: Oil is the bond market's mood ring right now: steadier crude helped yields ease Tuesday (Reuters). Higher yields feed straight into mortgages and bond funds.
📈 CHART OF THE DAY

Google signed the deal. Power stocks got paid. For context, Constellation's 12.2% gain Tuesday was its best day since April 2025 (Yahoo Finance data). Notice the bottom bar: Alphabet, the buyer, rose 0.35%. Talen and Vistra weren't party to the deal and still rose 12.4% and 10.8% "in sympathy," per CNBC; Evercore ISI told clients the deals are good news for other nuclear owners that could add capacity the same way.
Source: exchange closing prices via Yahoo Finance, Oct 5–6, 2026. Deal terms: Constellation Energy and Google, Oct 6, 2026.
⚡ QUICK HITS
Trade: The US trade deficit widened 13.7% to $105.6 billion in August, the widest since March 2025, as imports hit a record on AI-related equipment (BEA via FRED; CNBC; Reuters).
Washington: Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Monday night that growth and spending restraint will "very quickly" start "bending that curve" of government borrowing (Bloomberg).
After hours: Neogen rose 10% after raising its full-year revenue outlook to $885 million–$890 million; Penguin Solutions rose more than 4% after beating forecasts (CNBC).
Earnings: PepsiCo reports Thursday around 6 AM ET, with a call at 8:15 AM ET (company release).
Crypto: Bitcoin was at $84,126 early Wednesday, down 1.7% from its 24-hour open; Ether fell 3.4% to $2,615 (Coinbase).
🧠 EXPLAIN LIKE I'M BUSY
What's a nuclear "uprate," and why is Google paying for one?
An uprate squeezes more electricity out of a reactor that already exists, with new turbines, steam generators and control systems (CNBC). Constellation will spend more than $4.3 billion upgrading 11 units in Illinois, Pennsylvania and New Jersey to add 890 megawatts, roughly one large reactor's worth, with the first upgrade due in 2028 (company release; Google). Google buys that power under a 20-year contract. Why not build new? It takes years longer, and nearly every closed plant worth restarting is already spoken for (CNBC). Evercore ISI estimates uprates could add 4 to 8 gigawatts by the mid-2030s (CNBC). The quickest new power plant is an old one with better parts.
🗓️ TODAY'S CATALYSTS (ALL TIMES ET): WEDNESDAY + THE WEEK AHEAD
Day | Event | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
Wed | Regular hours: NYSE open, bond market open | No holiday on either calendar. |
Wed 8:00 AM | Constellation Brands earnings call (company) | Management on Modelo and Corona volumes. |
Wed 10:30 AM | EIA weekly petroleum status report (EIA) | US crude and fuel stockpiles. |
Wed 1:00 PM | $39B 10-year note auction, reopening (Treasury) | Demand test at a 5.27% 10-year. |
Wed 2:00 PM | FOMC minutes, Sep 15–16 meeting (Fed) | The debate behind September's hike. |
Wed 3:00 PM | Consumer credit, August (Fed G.19) | How much households are borrowing. |
Thu 4:30 AM | Fed Governor Waller on the economic outlook (Fed) | A voter's view before the Oct 27–28 meeting. |
Thu | PepsiCo Q3 results (release ~6:00 AM; call 8:15 AM) | A read on snack and soda demand. |
Thu 1:00 PM | $22B 30-year bond auction, reopening (Treasury) | The long end's turn. |
Fri | Delta Air Lines Sept-quarter results (webcast 10:00 AM); UMich preliminary October sentiment | Fuel costs meet consumer mood. |
Mon Oct 12 | Columbus Day: stocks open, bond market closed (NYSE; SIFMA) | No fresh Treasury closes that day. |
Tue Oct 13 | JPMorgan and other big financials report (CNBC; Reuters) | Earnings season starts. |
Wed Oct 14 8:30 AM | September CPI (BLS) | The key inflation print before the Oct 27–28 Fed. |
That's the desk. See you tomorrow at 6 AM ET.
— The Overnight Desk Team
Note: The Overnight Desk Team may hold positions in assets discussed. Nothing here is investment advice. · Sponsor: No one paid for any mention in this issue.

