Good morning. Intel had its worst day since the 1970s on Friday, chip stocks had their worst day since June, and the Nasdaq-100 closed 9.1% below its record, about 1% from what Wall Street calls a correction. Futures are bouncing: as of 3:40 AM ET, Nasdaq-100 futures are up 0.8% and S&P 500 futures 0.4% (CNBC). This week brings Apple tonight, the midterm elections Tuesday and the jobs report Friday. One housekeeping note: US clocks fell back an hour on Sunday, so every time below is Eastern Standard Time.
📊 THE OVERNIGHT SNAPSHOT
Stocks, VIX and yields are Friday's close. Futures, oil and gold as of 3:40 AM ET, vs. Friday's settle; dollar index 3:50 AM ET. Crypto as of 3:50 AM ET vs. its 24-hour open. Nikkei, Kospi and Hang Seng are Monday's close. Stoxx 600 is live as of 3:35 AM ET.
One-line read: October ended with the chip trade on the floor and most of the market still standing; November opens with Apple, an election and a jobs report in five days.
Market | Last | Change |
|---|---|---|
S&P 500 futures | 7,644.00 | ▲ 30.00 pts (+0.39%) |
Nasdaq-100 futures | 28,760.00 | ▲ 226.00 pts (+0.79%) |
Dow futures | 52,070 | ▲ 152 pts (+0.29%) |
S&P 500 | 7,580.07 | ▼ 1.82% (−140.32) |
Nasdaq Composite | 25,437.00 | ▼ 2.86% (−747.73) |
Nasdaq-100 | 28,384.85 | ▼ 3.46% (−1,017.66) |
Dow | 51,770.31 | ▼ 1.09% (−572.25) |
Equal-weight S&P 500 | 8,842.30 | ▼ 0.79% (−70.66) |
Russell 2000 | 2,811.84 | ▼ 1.66% (−47.37) |
Chip index (SOX) | 10,688.80 | ▼ 7.20% (−829.40) |
VIX | 19.42 | ▲ 2.22 pts |
US 10Y yield | 4.94% | ▼ 4 bp |
US 2Y yield | 4.56% | ▼ 5 bp |
WTI oil (Dec) | $99.98 | ▼ 4.0% (vs. $104.12 Fri settle) |
Brent oil (Jan) | $109.05 | ▼ 3.9% (vs. $113.43 Fri settle) |
Gold (Dec) | $3,906.80 | ▲ 0.20% (vs. $3,898.90 Fri settle) |
Dollar index (DXY) | 101.55 | ▼ 0.33% |
Bitcoin | $78,253 | ▲ 0.2% |
Ether | $2,300 | ▲ 1.2% |
Nikkei 225 (Mon close) | 63,081.86 | ▼ 0.33% (−208.25) |
Kospi (Mon close) | 5,859.08 | ▲ 2.24% (+128.34) |
Hang Seng (Mon close) | 23,393.32 | ▲ 0.42% (+98.90) |
Stoxx 600 (Mon, live) | 646.32 | ▼ 0.07% (−0.43) |
🌙 WHAT HAPPENED WHILE YOU SLEPT
Intel Fell 29%. Chips Went With It.
Intel shares fell 28.6% on Friday to $65.76, the stock's worst day since the 1970s, a day after the company forecast fourth-quarter revenue below estimates and blamed a PC slowdown and a factory shutdown in Israel (CNBC; Yahoo Finance). The rest of the chip business followed it down. The PHLX Semiconductor index (SOX) fell 7.20%, its worst day since June 23 (Yahoo Finance; our math). Qualcomm fell 11.1%, AMD 10.9%, Arm 10.0%, Broadcom 5.5%, Micron 5.3% and Nvidia 4.2%; SanDisk lost 13.5% and Dell 10.8% (Yahoo Finance; CNBC). The four "hyperscalers" building most of the AI data centers, Microsoft, Meta, Amazon and Alphabet, each slipped 1% to 2% after a bruising week of earnings (Reuters). "Investors are voting all of a sudden and all together on who will monetize the investment and who won't," said Brian Jacobsen of Annex Wealth Management (Reuters).
The numbers: The S&P 500 fell 1.82% to 7,580.07, its worst day since June and its third straight losing week (AP; CNBC). The Nasdaq Composite fell 2.86% to 25,437.00, its biggest drop since June, and the Dow lost 572 points, or 1.09% (Reuters; AP). The Nasdaq-100 fell 3.46% to 28,384.85 and is now 9.1% below its Oct. 6 record (Yahoo Finance; our math). Reuters called it "on the brink of a correction," the term for a 10% drop. For October, the Nasdaq Composite lost 5.3%, its worst month since March 2025, while the S&P 500 slipped 0.9% and the Dow gained 1.7% (Reuters; Yahoo Finance; our math). The VIX, Wall Street's fear gauge, rose 2.22 points to 19.42 (CNBC).
Why it matters: If you own a Nasdaq-100 fund, you own the part of the market doing the falling. The largest AI and chip stocks have lost about $5 trillion of market value since Oct. 6, while the other 625 large US stocks in Yahoo Finance's tally gained about $1.3 trillion (Yahoo Finance). Last week the S&P 500 slipped about 0.6%, yet 9 of its 11 sectors rose about 1% or more, the most for any down week since at least 1999 (Yahoo Finance). Taxpayers have a stake too: the US government owns about 10% of Intel, and Friday's drop cut the value of that holding by about $12 billion (CNBC).
What to watch: As of 3:40 AM ET, Nasdaq-100 futures are up 0.79%, S&P 500 futures 0.39% and Dow futures 0.29% (CNBC). In overnight trading, Intel was 1.3% below Friday's close, while AMD, Micron and SanDisk were up less than 1% (CNBC). On Friday, D.A. Davidson downgraded Intel in a note titled "Not fixed yet" (CNBC). Futures are acting like October was someone else's problem.
🔑 3 THINGS TO KNOW BEFORE THE OPEN
1. Apple reports tonight as the world's most valuable company.
Apple closed Friday worth about $5.03 trillion, ahead of Nvidia at about $4.93 trillion, and it is the only "Magnificent Seven" stock beating the S&P 500 this year, up about 27% against about 11% (Yahoo Finance). Analysts expect fiscal fourth-quarter earnings of $2.00 a share on revenue of $113.46 billion, up from $1.85 and $102.46 billion a year earlier, with iPhone sales of $56.48 billion, up 15% (Bloomberg consensus via Yahoo Finance). It is the first earnings call for CEO John Ternus, who took over from Tim Cook on Sept. 1 (Yahoo Finance). Not everyone is relaxed: on Friday, Bank of America took Apple off its US1 list of top ideas, citing possible pressure on profit margins (CNBC). Palantir also reports after the close (CNBC). Before all that, the ISM manufacturing survey lands at 10:00 AM ET, where economists expect 54.5, unchanged from September (WSJ survey; above 50 means factories are growing).
Why it matters: Apple is the largest US company by market value, so tonight's after-hours move lands in nearly every S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 fund, the week after its megacap peers disappointed.
2. Fed officials asked for more hikes. Bonds rallied anyway.
Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan said the Fed "needs to implement at least two more 25-basis-point rate increases," and St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem said more tightening "will be necessary, and soon" (Reuters). The Fed held its target range at 3.75% to 4% last week after raising it in September, and its next decision is Dec. 9 (Reuters). Futures still imply a 72% chance of a quarter-point hike in December, but now price 55 basis points of total tightening, down from more than 70 a month ago (Reuters). Wage data gave them less to worry about: the Employment Cost Index rose 0.8% in the third quarter, in line with forecasts, and 3.4% from a year earlier; for private-sector workers, wages and salaries after inflation fell 0.6% over the year (BLS; Reuters). The 10-year Treasury yield fell 4 bp on Friday to 4.94%, its lowest close since Sep. 17, and finished October 35 bp below its Sep. 30 level of 5.29% (US Treasury). Overnight it is at 4.91% (CNBC, 3:48 AM ET).
Why it matters: Freddie Mac's 30-year mortgage rate was 7.24% last week (Freddie Mac via FRED), and it tends to follow the 10-year. October's bond rally helps bond-fund holders and home buyers, even as Fed officials talk tougher.
3. Election Tuesday, jobs Friday.
Democrats are widely predicted to win the House in Tuesday's midterms, while control of the Senate is more in doubt (Reuters). Investors are watching for tougher scrutiny of data centers, and say defense, health care, banks and crypto firms could be sensitive to the results (Reuters). Since 1934, the Dow has gained 2.8% on average in the eight trading days around midterm Election Days (Stock Trader's Almanac via CNBC). On Friday at 8:30 AM ET, economists expect the October jobs report to show 55,000 new jobs, after 29,000 in September, with unemployment steady at 4.2% (WSJ survey). AMD reports Tuesday and Qualcomm Wednesday (CNBC).
Why it matters: A weak jobs number would cut against the Fed officials pushing for hikes. Stock and bond markets are open on Election Day (NYSE; SIFMA).
📈 CHART OF THE DAY
The Nasdaq-100 is 9.1% below its record. The Nasdaq-100, the 100 largest nonfinancial companies on the Nasdaq, closed Friday 9.1% below its Oct. 6 record. The S&P 500 is 3.1% below its record from the same day (Yahoo Finance; our math). For context, this would be the Nasdaq-100's third correction of 2026: it bottomed 12.1% below its record on Mar. 30 and 11.3% below on Jul. 29, and set new records after both (Yahoo Finance; our math). Notice the gap between the lines: the S&P 500's deepest point this year was 9.1% below its record, on Mar. 30, and it never crossed the correction line (Yahoo Finance; our math).
Source: Nasdaq-100 (^NDX) and S&P 500 (^GSPC) daily closes via Yahoo Finance, Jan 2–Oct 30, 2026; drawdown from the highest close to date. Oct 30 S&P 500 close matches CNBC. Our math.
⚡ QUICK HITS
Oil: WTI is down 4.0% at $99.98 overnight, back below $100 (CNBC, 3:40 AM ET), after Iranian officials and Qatari mediators held a third straight day of talks on ending the US-Israeli war on Iran (Reuters). Tankers are still being attacked in the Gulf, and Reuters cited reports that the US has told Middle East allies to expect a renewed strike on Iran after the midterms (Reuters). On Sunday, OPEC+ kept its December output targets unchanged (Reuters). On Friday, WTI settled at $104.12, its highest close since mid-September (CNBC; Yahoo Finance), and Brent ended October at a six-month high (Reuters).
Oil companies: Exxon Mobil's third-quarter profit roughly doubled to $15.4 billion and Chevron's nearly tripled to $9.9 billion on refining, and both topped forecasts (CNBC). Both stocks touched all-time highs Friday; Exxon closed up 2.2% and Chevron 1.8% (CNBC; Yahoo Finance).
Reddit: Shares fell 29.2%, their worst day since the company went public in 2024, after it forecast fourth-quarter sales of $1 billion to $1.03 billion, below the $1.05 billion analysts expected (CNBC). CEO Steve Huffman said search-referral traffic from Google went "down meaningfully in this quarter" because of AI, and Reddit will test requiring users to log in (CNBC).
Metals and banks: Gold futures fell 3.3% and silver 5.9% Friday (CNBC; Yahoo Finance); gold is down 10% for 2026 and silver 31% (Reuters). Goldman Sachs fell 3.6% and Jefferies 6.2% (Yahoo Finance).
Crypto: Binance reopened withdrawals on Sunday after last week's $6.3 billion hack, and customers pulled a net $3.64 billion, about 2.1% of its assets; the FBI blamed North Korean hackers (CNBC). Bitcoin is near $78,253 as of 3:50 AM ET, up 0.2% from its 24-hour open, and Ether near $2,300, up 1.2% (Coinbase). On Friday, Coinbase shares fell 10.6% and Strategy 7.8% (Yahoo Finance).
Asia: Seoul's Kospi closed up 2.2% on Monday, while Japan's Nikkei gave up early gains to close down 0.3% (CNBC; AP). Memory maker Kioxia plunged 15.8% in Tokyo after warning that flash memory prices are stalling (Yahoo Finance; AP). China's official factory index fell to 49.3 in October from 50.1, its third contraction in four months (Reuters); Hong Kong's Hang Seng closed up 0.4% after reports that Chinese regulators will meet banks and brokers about supporting stocks (CNBC).
Wildcard: US clocks fell back an hour on Sunday. The 6 AM ET send didn't move; the sunrise did.
🧠 EXPLAIN LIKE I'M BUSY
What is a stock market "correction"?
A correction is a drop of 10% or more from a recent closing high (Reuters). A drop of 20% or more is usually called a bear market. The label is a convention, not a law of nature: nothing in the market changes when an index crosses 10%, but headlines do. The Nasdaq-100 is 9.1% below its Oct. 6 record, so a further drop of about 1% from Friday's close would put it there (Yahoo Finance; our math). It has already had two corrections this year, in March and July, and set new records after each (Yahoo Finance; our math). The S&P 500, where tech is a large but smaller share, is 3.1% below its record. If your 401(k) holds a broad index fund, the number to watch is that 3.1%, not the 9.1%.
🗓️ TODAY'S CATALYSTS (ALL TIMES ET)
Day | Event | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
Mon Nov 2 | S&P Global manufacturing PMI (final), 9:45 AM; ISM manufacturing, 10:00 AM (est. 54.5); construction spending, 10:00 AM (est. +0.4%) (WSJ survey) | First read on October factories. |
Mon | Apple after the close (call 5 PM); also Palantir, ON Semiconductor, Vertex, Marriott (CNBC) | The largest US company reports. |
Tue Nov 3 | Midterm elections; JOLTS job openings, 10:00 AM (est. 7.1M); AMD, Pfizer, Amgen, Super Micro (CNBC; WSJ survey) | Control of Congress; markets open (NYSE; SIFMA). |
Wed Nov 4 | ADP jobs, 8:15 AM; ISM services, 10:00 AM (est. 54.6); Qualcomm, McDonald's, Uber, Costco (CNBC; WSJ survey) | Services are most of the economy. |
Thu Nov 5 | Jobless claims, 8:30 AM (est. 198,000); productivity, 8:30 AM (WSJ survey) | Weekly labor check. |
Fri Nov 6 | October jobs report, 8:30 AM (est. +55,000; 4.2% unemployment); Michigan sentiment, 10:00 AM (WSJ survey) | The Fed's next big labor read before Dec. 9. |
Wed Nov 11 | Veterans Day: bond market closed (SIFMA); stock market open (NYSE) | No Treasury trading that day. |
Thu Nov 26 | Thanksgiving: stock and bond markets closed (NYSE; SIFMA) | Stocks close early at 1 PM and bonds at 2 PM on Fri Nov 27. |
No market holidays today: NYSE and SIFMA are both on normal hours. US clocks fell back on Sunday; all times are Eastern Standard Time.
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That's the desk. See you tomorrow at 6 AM ET.
— The Overnight Desk Team
Note: The Overnight Desk Team may hold positions in assets discussed. Nothing here is investment advice. · Sponsor: No one paid for any mention in this issue.
