Good morning. US employers added 29,000 jobs in September, less than a third of the 90,000 economists expected, and stocks liked it: the S&P 500 rose 0.7% Friday to 7,722.72 (BLS; Reuters). The bond market was less impressed. The 10-year Treasury yield dipped to 5.16% after the report, then closed at 5.28%, up 4 bp and its fifth straight weekly gain (Reuters; US Treasury). A quiet night since: S&P 500 futures are within 0.1% of flat.
📊 THE OVERNIGHT SNAPSHOT
Stocks, VIX and yields are Friday's close. Futures and oil as of ~11:54 PM ET Sunday vs. Friday's settle. Crypto as of ~11:58 PM ET Sunday, vs. its 24-hour open. Nikkei as of ~11:49 PM ET Sunday (Tokyo's Monday afternoon).
Market | Last | Change |
|---|---|---|
S&P 500 futures | 7,773.75 | ▼ 3.5 pts (−0.05%) |
Nasdaq-100 futures | 31,102.25 | ▲ 40.5 pts (+0.13%) |
Dow futures | 51,425 | ▼ 52 pts (−0.10%) |
S&P 500 (Fri close) | 7,722.72 | ▲ 0.7% (+56.27) |
Nasdaq Composite (Fri) | 27,190.86 | ▲ 1.2% (+319.27) |
Dow (Fri) | 51,176.96 | ▲ 0.5% (+250.40) |
Russell 2000 (Fri) | 2,832.90 | ▲ 0.9% (+26.27) |
VIX (Fri) | 15.31 | ▼ 1.08 pts |
US 10Y yield (Fri) | 5.28% | ▲ 4 bp |
US 2Y yield (Fri) | 4.83% | ▲ 5 bp |
WTI oil | $90.05 | ▼ 1.2% (vs. $91.11 Fri settle) |
Brent oil | $101.46 | ▼ 0.8% (vs. $102.25 Fri settle) |
Bitcoin | $86,062 | ▲ 1.5% |
Ether | $2,716 | ▲ 0.8% |
Nikkei 225 (Mon, live) | 69,841 | ▲ 2.2% |
Stoxx 600 (Fri) | 631.35 | ▲ 0.7% |
One-line read: Stocks and Tokyo took the soft jobs number as permission to rally; Treasuries took it as one data point in a five-week selloff.
🌙 WHAT HAPPENED WHILE YOU SLEPT
Jobs Missed. The 10-Year Rose Anyway.
The economy added 29,000 jobs in September, and the 10-year Treasury yield still finished higher. Bonds rallied on the 8:30 AM ET print, pushing the 10-year to 5.157%, a one-week low. Then the selling resumed. It closed at 5.28% (Reuters; US Treasury).
The numbers: Payrolls rose 29,000 vs. 90,000 expected (Reuters poll). July was revised to −10,000 and August to +133,000, a combined 60,000 fewer jobs than first reported. Unemployment rose to 4.2% from 4.1%, and hourly pay rose 3.0% from a year ago (all BLS). CME FedWatch put the odds of an October rate hike at 22.7%, down from 64.2% a week earlier (Reuters). Stocks took the Fed's side: the Nasdaq touched a record intraday, and small caps had their best day in a month (Reuters).
Why it matters: The report cooled hike bets but did nothing for long-term borrowing costs. Freddie Mac's 30-year mortgage average hit 7.28% on Oct 1, up from 7.03% a week earlier, and longer-dated bond funds lose value when yields rise. Good news for the Fed. Not yet for anyone shopping for a mortgage.
What to watch: ISM's September services index at 10:00 AM ET today, then Treasury's 3-year, 10-year and 30-year auctions Tuesday through Thursday (Treasury schedule). Those sales show who still wants to lend to Washington at these yields.
🔑 3 THINGS TO KNOW BEFORE THE OPEN
1. Fed minutes land Wednesday at 2 PM ET.
They cover the Sep 15–16 meeting, where the Fed voted 12–0 to raise rates a quarter point to 3.75%–4.00%, its first hike since 2023 (Federal Reserve; Reuters). The next decision is Oct 28.
Why it matters: The fed funds rate sets what your savings account and money-market fund pay, and what your credit card charges.
2. Schneider Electric is circling PTC.
The French company is nearing a roughly $20 billion deal for the Boston-based industrial-software maker, which could be announced as soon as Monday, a person close to the deal told Reuters (the FT reported it first). Nothing is signed. PTC closed Friday at $144.03, a market value of about $15.6 billion (Reuters, citing LSEG; Yahoo Finance).
Why it matters: The AI data-center boom is now pulling factory software into the deal flow, and takeover premiums are one way index-fund holders get paid.
3. Tokyo topped 70,000; oil slipped.
The Nikkei crossed 70,000 for the first time since early July, led by chip stocks (Kyodo; Nikkei), and was up 2.2% near 69,841 in the afternoon session (Yahoo Finance). China and South Korea are closed for holidays (CNBC). WTI fell 1.2% to $90.05 after the G7 agreed Friday to release 100 million barrels of crude and diesel from emergency reserves, and Saudi Aramco cut its November price for Asian buyers to its biggest discount since June 2020 (Reuters). The Houthis claimed attacks on Aramco sites; Saudi Arabia hasn't confirmed (Reuters).
Why it matters: Oil feeds inflation, and inflation feeds the 10-year. A global stock fund owns Tokyo's rally either way.
📈 CHART OF THE DAY
The 10-year rose for a fifth straight week. For context, it closed at 4.73% on Aug 28; Friday's 5.28% is 55 bp higher, five Fridays later. Notice Friday itself: a weak jobs report pulled it down to 5.16% intraday, and it still closed up 4 bp. Per Reuters, the third quarter was the 10-year's biggest quarterly rise since 1994.
Source: US Treasury daily par yield curve (10-yr), data through Oct 2, 2026. Oct 2 intraday low 5.157% per Reuters.
⚡ QUICK HITS
Autos: Tesla delivered 486,532 vehicles in Q3, above its own 461,974 compiled consensus but about 2% below a year ago. Shares rose 4.7% to $370.59 (Tesla 8-K; CNBC; Yahoo Finance).
Tech: Western Digital and Seagate each fell about 10%, the worst in the S&P 500 tech index, after Nikkei reported Toshiba plans to double hard-drive capacity for AI data centers within fiscal 2027 (Reuters).
Retail: Nike fell 3.6% to $33.87, the Dow's worst performer, a day after forecasting a steep drop in annual revenue on weak China demand (Reuters; Yahoo Finance).
Indexes: Moderna joins the Nasdaq-100 before the open Friday, Oct 9, replacing Warner Bros. Discovery (Nasdaq).
Crypto: Bitcoin was at $86,062 late Sunday, up 1.5% from its 24-hour open; Ether rose 0.8% to $2,716 (Coinbase).
🧠 EXPLAIN LIKE I'M BUSY
Why would yields rise after a weak jobs report?
The 2-year yield is mostly a bet on the Fed's next few moves. The 10-year prices more: a decade of inflation, how much debt Treasury has to sell, and the extra pay lenders want for tying money up that long. Friday, the jobs miss trimmed hike bets and yields dipped. Then sellers returned; TD Securities pointed to shifting Fed bets, profit-taking and pre-weekend positioning (Reuters). The Fed sets tonight's rate. The 10-year prices a 10-year promise.
🗓️ TODAY'S CATALYSTS (ALL TIMES ET): MONDAY + THE WEEK AHEAD
Day | Event | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
Mon | Regular hours: NYSE open, bond market open | No holiday on either calendar. |
Mon 10:00 AM | ISM Services PMI, September (ISM) | Services are most of the economy. |
Tue | 3-year note auction (Treasury) | First of three coupon sales this week. |
Wed | 10-year note auction, reopening (Treasury) | Demand test at a 5.28% 10-year. |
Wed 2:00 PM | FOMC minutes, Sep 15–16 meeting (Fed) | The debate behind September's hike. |
Thu | PepsiCo Q3 results (release ~6:00 AM; call 8:15 AM) | A read on snack and soda demand. |
Thu | 30-year bond auction, reopening (Treasury) | The long end's turn. |
Fri | Delta Air Lines Sept-quarter results (webcast 10:00 AM); UMich preliminary October sentiment | Fuel costs meet consumer mood. |
Mon Oct 12 | Columbus Day: stocks open, bond market closed (NYSE; SIFMA) | No fresh Treasury closes that day. |
Tue Oct 13 | JPMorgan results, the unofficial start of earnings season (CNBC) | Banks report first. |
Wed Oct 14 8:30 AM | September CPI (BLS) | Next inflation print before the Oct 27–28 Fed. |
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That's the desk. See you Tuesday at 6 AM ET.
— The Overnight Desk Team
Note: The Overnight Desk Team may hold positions in assets discussed. Nothing here is investment advice. · Sponsor: No one paid for any mention in this issue.
