Good morning. Brent crude had its biggest one-day drop since April on Monday, and most stocks in the S&P 500 rose. Tech fell anyway, and the Nasdaq-100 closed 10.4% below its Oct. 6 record, which makes it a correction. Apple beat estimates after the bell and slipped 2.8% in late trading. Oil is bouncing back this morning after the US struck Iran's Qeshm Island, a US official told Reuters, and as of 3:39 AM ET S&P 500 futures are down 0.2% and Dow futures 0.6% (CNBC). Today is Election Day; stock and bond markets keep normal hours.
📊 THE OVERNIGHT SNAPSHOT
Stocks, VIX and yields are Monday's close. Futures, oil and gold as of 3:39 AM ET, vs. Monday's settle; dollar index 3:49 AM ET. Crypto as of 3:49 AM ET vs. its 24-hour open. Kospi and Hang Seng are Tuesday's close; Tokyo is closed Tuesday. Stoxx 600 is Tuesday, live as of 3:34 AM ET.
One-line read: The average stock had a good Monday; the stocks that carry the index did not.
Market | Last | Change |
|---|---|---|
S&P 500 futures | 7,558.50 | ▼ 16.00 pts (−0.21%) |
Nasdaq-100 futures | 28,116.75 | ▼ 10.75 pts (−0.04%) |
Dow futures | 51,834 | ▼ 299 pts (−0.57%) |
S&P 500 | 7,541.40 | ▼ 0.51% (−38.67) |
Nasdaq Composite | 25,164.36 | ▼ 1.07% (−272.64) |
Nasdaq-100 | 27,989.82 | ▼ 1.39% (−395.03) |
Dow | 51,983.98 | ▲ 0.41% (+213.67) |
Equal-weight S&P 500 | 8,906.94 | ▲ 0.73% (+64.64) |
Russell 2000 | 2,805.88 | ▼ 0.21% (−5.97) |
Chip index (SOX) | 10,328.33 | ▼ 3.37% (−360.47) |
VIX | 21.15 | ▲ 1.73 pts |
US 10Y yield | 4.91% | ▼ 3 bp |
US 2Y yield | 4.59% | ▲ 3 bp |
WTI oil (Dec) | $98.13 | ▲ 1.73% (vs. $96.46 Mon settle) |
Brent oil (Jan) | $106.92 | ▲ 2.05% (vs. $104.77 Mon settle) |
Gold (Dec) | $3,915.60 | ▼ 1.36% (vs. $3,969.60 Mon settle) |
Dollar index (DXY) | 101.73 | ▼ 0.02% |
Bitcoin | $76,397 | ▼ 2.2% |
Ether | $2,249 | ▼ 2.0% |
Kospi (Tue close) | 5,648.79 | ▼ 3.59% (−210.29) |
Hang Seng (Tue close) | 23,525.97 | ▲ 0.57% (+132.65) |
Stoxx 600 (Tue, live) | 645.81 | ▼ 0.56% (−3.63) |
🌙 WHAT HAPPENED WHILE YOU SLEPT
Oil Fell 7%. Tech Fell Anyway.
US crude fell 7.36% on Monday to settle at $96.46 a barrel, its biggest one-day drop since July, and Brent fell 7.63% to $104.77, its biggest since April (CNBC; Reuters). Iran's president said the country's supreme leader had given his government more authority to pursue peace talks, and President Trump told reporters, "They want to make a deal" (Bloomberg). Cheaper oil lifted most of the market: seven of the 11 S&P 500 sectors rose, led by consumer discretionary, up about 2%, while energy fell 4% (Reuters). The equal-weight S&P 500, where every company counts the same, rose 0.73% (CNBC). Then tech sold off in the afternoon. Oracle fell 8.8% after filing to raise $20 billion, half in new stock and half in bonds, to pay for its AI buildout (CNBC). Marvell fell 12.7% and Lumentum 18.6% after Marvell agreed to buy Lumentum in an all-stock deal valued at $115 billion (CNBC; Reuters). Intel fell another 8.8%, AMD 7.5% and Micron 5.8% (CNBC).
The numbers: The S&P 500 fell 0.51% to 7,541.40 after being up as much as 1.1% early, and the Nasdaq Composite fell 1.07% to 25,164.36 (CNBC). The Dow rose 213.67 points, or 0.41%, to 51,983.98, helped by Sherwin-Williams, up 5.9%, and Home Depot, up 3.6% (CNBC). The Nasdaq-100 fell 1.39% to 27,989.82, 10.4% below its Oct. 6 record of 31,224.47; a 10% drop is what Wall Street calls a correction (Yahoo Finance; our math). The chip index (SOX) fell 3.37% and has lost 11.6% in three trading days (Yahoo Finance; our math). The VIX, Wall Street's fear gauge, rose 1.73 points to 21.15 (CNBC).
Why it matters: If you own an S&P 500 index fund, Monday's tape split in two. The typical stock in it rose, but the S&P 500 fell because its biggest weights are tech and chip companies. Oil feeds gasoline and inflation, and the 10-year Treasury yield fell 3 bp to 4.91%, its lowest close since Sep. 9 (US Treasury). Lower yields help bond-fund holders and home buyers; lower oil helps anyone with a gas tank.
What to watch: Oil won back part of Monday's drop overnight. The US carried out strikes on Iran's Qeshm Island in the Strait of Hormuz, a US official told Reuters, confirming an earlier Wall Street Journal report, and an Iranian official said a deal to end the war was far off (Reuters). As of 3:39 AM ET, WTI is up 1.73% at $98.13 and Brent is up 2.05% at $106.92 (CNBC). S&P 500 futures are down 0.21%, Nasdaq-100 futures are down 0.04% and Dow futures are down 0.57% (CNBC). Cheaper oil helped the average stock for a day. It didn't help the AI trade.
🔑 3 THINGS TO KNOW BEFORE THE OPEN
1. Apple beat, then guided margins lower.
Apple earned $2.10 a share on revenue of $114.48 billion in its fiscal fourth quarter, above the $1.99 and $113.39 billion analysts expected, and iPhone sales of $57.58 billion topped the $56.54 billion estimate (LSEG via CNBC). It forecast holiday-quarter revenue growth of 7% to 10%, above the 6.1% analysts expected, but a gross margin of 45% to 46%, below the 46.3% estimate and down from 47.9% last quarter (CNBC; Reuters). Finance chief Kevan Parekh said memory-chip costs will keep rising into next year, and Apple's purchase commitments rose by $33 billion in the quarter (Reuters). The shares closed down 1.83% at $338.32 before the report and were at $328.81 after hours, down 2.81% (CNBC). Palantir also reported: revenue rose 96% to $2.31 billion, above the $2.18 billion expected, and US commercial revenue passed US government revenue for the first time (CNBC; Palantir). Its shares fell about 3% after hours (CNBC).
Why it matters: Apple is one of the largest weights in the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq-100, so its morning move lands in nearly every index fund. Rising memory prices that help chipmakers are a cost for the companies that buy the chips.
2. It's Election Day, and the market is open.
Control of Congress is on the ballot; forecasts point to Democrats winning the House, with control of the Senate less clear (Reuters). The first polls close at 6 PM ET in Indiana and Kentucky, and in Georgia, South Carolina, Vermont and Virginia at 7 PM ET (Reuters). Investors are watching what the results mean for AI and data-center oversight, government spending and the debt-ceiling talks expected in 2027 (Reuters). History offers context, not a forecast: in eight midterm cycles since 1930 when the president's party lost the House, the S&P 500 rose from Election Day through year-end five times, with a median gain of 1.4% (Ned Davis Research via Reuters). Stock and bond markets keep normal hours today (NYSE; SIFMA).
Why it matters: Results will arrive after the 4 PM ET close, so any reaction shows up first in futures tonight and in Wednesday's open, when the Treasury also announces its quarterly borrowing plans (ING via Reuters).
3. AMD reports tonight; job openings at 10 AM ET.
AMD reports after the close, with analysts expecting earnings of $1.97 a share on revenue of $13 billion, up from $1.20 and $9.2 billion a year ago, and data-center sales of $8.19 billion, up 88% (Bloomberg consensus via Yahoo Finance). Its shares fell 7.5% on Monday to $466.84 ahead of the report (CNBC). At 10 AM ET, the JOLTS report is expected to show 7.134 million job openings in September, up from 7.079 million in August (CME Group/Econoday consensus). Monday's ISM manufacturing index rose to 55.5 from 54.5, above the 54.5 economists expected, though its prices index stayed high at 75.2 (ISM via CNBC). Futures imply a 74.9% chance of a quarter-point Fed rate hike on Dec. 9, up from 70.7% a day earlier (CME FedWatch).
Why it matters: AMD is the next big read on AI chip demand after last week's Intel shock, and job openings are one of the labor signals the Fed watches before Friday's jobs report.
📈 CHART OF THE DAY
Oil had its biggest one-day drop since July. US crude oil (WTI) fell 7.36% on Monday to $96.46 a barrel, its largest one-day decline since a 7.5% drop on Jul. 27 (Yahoo Finance; our math; Reuters). For context, it is still up 68% for 2026 from $57.32 on Jan. 2, and 14.6% below its 2026 high of $112.95 on Apr. 7 (Yahoo Finance; our math). Notice how fast it moves both ways: Friday's $104.12 was its highest settle since mid-September, and Monday's $96.46 is the lowest settle since Oct. 14 (Yahoo Finance; our math).
Source: NYMEX WTI front-month futures (CL=F) daily settles via Yahoo Finance, Jan 2–Nov 2, 2026; Nov 2 settle matches CNBC. Our math.
⚡ QUICK HITS
AI money: Anthropic's amended IPO filing showed third-quarter revenue of $16.96 billion, up 47% from the second quarter, slower than the prior quarter's 144% growth, and $895.4 billion of computing commitments (Reuters). Big tech is borrowing again: Microsoft sold $25 billion of bonds last week and Meta is eyeing at least $20 billion (Bloomberg). Oracle priced its new shares at $116 each, below Monday's $119.22 close (Oracle; CNBC).
Factories and builders: Construction spending fell 1.9% in September, the biggest monthly drop since April 2020, against an expected 0.4% gain; home building fell 5.5% (Commerce Department via CNBC).
Gold: Gold futures rose 1.8% on Monday to settle at $3,969.60, still below $4,000 (CNBC; Reuters; our math), and are down 1.36% overnight at $3,915.60 (CNBC, 3:39 AM ET).
Earnings winner: IDEXX Laboratories rose 21.9% after topping third-quarter estimates and raising its 2026 forecasts (CNBC).
Crypto: Bitcoin is near $76,397 as of 3:49 AM ET, down 2.2% from its 24-hour open, and Ether near $2,249, down 2.0% (Coinbase). Coinbase shares fell 4.0% on Monday (CNBC).
Asia and Europe: The chip slide spread overseas. Seoul's Kospi closed down 3.59% and Taiwan's main index also fell 3.59%, while Hong Kong's Hang Seng closed up 0.57% (CNBC). Australia's central bank raised its key rate a quarter point to 4.85%, the highest since 2008 (CNBC; Reuters). China's central bank said it will encourage financial institutions to make greater use of stock-support tools (Bloomberg). In Europe, the Stoxx 600 is down 0.56% as of 3:34 AM ET, with ASML down 3.4% early (CNBC).
Wildcard: Tokyo's stock market is closed today for Culture Day. On Election Day, the quietest big exchange in Asia is the one on holiday.
🧠 EXPLAIN LIKE I'M BUSY
Why does a stock fall when the company sells new shares?
When a company sells new stock, it creates more shares, so each existing share owns a smaller slice of the same company. That is called dilution. Oracle sold 86.2 million new shares at $116 each, below Monday's $119.22 close (Oracle; CNBC), and it is raising another $10 billion through bonds (CNBC). Companies usually price new stock a little below the market to attract buyers, and the extra supply of shares can weigh on the price. The money is not wasted: Oracle says it will fund AI and cloud infrastructure (CNBC). The question investors weigh is whether the new data centers will earn more than the slice they gave up. If you own an S&P 500 fund, you own a little Oracle, and your slice got slightly smaller too.
🗓️ TODAY'S CATALYSTS (ALL TIMES ET)
Day | Event | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
Tue Nov 3 | Election Day: first polls close 6:00 PM (Indiana, Kentucky), more at 7:00 PM (Reuters) | Control of Congress; markets open normal hours (NYSE; SIFMA). |
Tue | JOLTS job openings, 10:00 AM (est. 7.134M; prior 7.079M) (CME Group/Econoday) | Labor demand before Friday's jobs report. |
Tue | AMD after the close (est. $1.97 EPS, $13B revenue); also Pfizer, Amgen, Super Micro (Yahoo Finance; CNBC) | The next AI chip read after Intel. |
Wed Nov 4 | ADP jobs, 8:15 AM; Treasury quarterly refunding; ISM services, 10:00 AM (est. 54.6); Qualcomm, McDonald's, Uber (CNBC; WSJ survey; Reuters) | How much the government borrows, and how. |
Thu Nov 5 | Jobless claims, 8:30 AM (est. 198,000); productivity, 8:30 AM (WSJ survey) | Weekly labor check. |
Fri Nov 6 | October jobs report, 8:30 AM (est. +55,000; 4.2% unemployment); Michigan sentiment, 10:00 AM (WSJ survey) | The Fed's next big labor read before Dec. 9. |
Wed Nov 11 | Veterans Day: bond market closed (SIFMA); stock market open (NYSE) | No Treasury trading that day. |
Thu Nov 26 | Thanksgiving: stock and bond markets closed (NYSE; SIFMA) | Stocks close early at 1 PM and bonds at 2 PM on Fri Nov 27. |
No market holidays today: Election Day is a normal trading day on the NYSE and SIFMA calendars. Tokyo is closed for a Japanese holiday.
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That's the desk. See you Wednesday at 6 AM ET.
— The Overnight Desk Team
Note: The Overnight Desk Team may hold positions in assets discussed. Nothing here is investment advice. · Sponsor: No one paid for any mention in this issue.
