OpenAI's number hit AI stocks.

Good morning. OpenAI told investors its annualized revenue was about $50 billion at the end of September, below the roughly $68 billion figure widely reported last month, and the Nasdaq fell 1.3% as chip stocks dropped 3.4% (CNBC; FT; Reuters). The S&P 500 slipped 0.5% for a second day while the Dow eked out a 0.1% gain, energy led, and WTI jumped 3.6% to settle at $91.49 (AP; Reuters). Overnight, oil eased about 1% after President Trump said the US will not attack Iran before the midterms, stock futures rose with Nasdaq-100 futures up about 0.8%, and Tokyo finished nearly flat (CNBC; Yahoo Finance).

Stocks, VIX and yields are Thursday's close. Futures and oil as of ~3:57 AM ET Friday vs. Thursday's settle. Crypto as of ~3:57 AM ET Friday, vs. its 24-hour open. Nikkei is Friday's close. Stoxx 600 is Friday, live at ~3:57 AM ET, vs. Thursday's close.

One-line read: Futures are higher after a tech-heavy down day (Nasdaq-100 futures +0.8%); oil is off about 1% overnight after Trump said no Iran strike before the midterms, and Tokyo closed nearly flat.

OpenAI told investors its annualized revenue was about $50 billion at the end of September, CNBC confirmed, below the roughly $68 billion figure widely reported late last month. The Financial Times was first to report the $50 billion number. A person familiar with the matter told CNBC the higher figure included gross revenue from partners, so investors could compare OpenAI with Anthropic.

The numbers: The Nasdaq Composite fell 1.3% to 27,193.34, its steepest one-day loss since mid-August and a second straight decline after record closes earlier in the week (AP; CNBC). The S&P 500 fell 0.5% to 7,765.36; the Dow rose 0.1% to 51,231.64 (AP). The PHLX Semiconductor Index fell 3.4% to 12,623.72 (Yahoo Finance; Reuters). CoreWeave dropped 7.8%, Arm 6.5%, Oracle 5.5%, Intel 5.3%, Micron 4.8%, Broadcom 4.3%, AMD 3.9% and Nvidia 2.9% (Yahoo Finance; CNBC). Energy was the best of the 11 S&P 500 sectors and technology the worst (Reuters; Yahoo Finance: XLE +3.0%, XLK −1.8%). Equal-weight S&P fund RSP rose 0.6% while SPY fell 0.4%, so the average stock held up better than the cap-weighted index (Yahoo Finance).

Why it matters: OpenAI is private, but the AI buildout is a big piece of what you already own in an S&P 500 or Nasdaq fund — Nvidia alone, chip suppliers, and the cloud/software names that spend on AI. A $18 billion gap between two revenue figures is an accounting story as much as a growth story. Still, one day of selling after a private-company update is not a verdict on the trade.

What to watch: Whether futures' overnight bounce holds after the 9:30 AM ET open, and how Delta's results (before the open) land against higher jet-fuel costs.

Freddie Mac's 30-year average rose to 7.40% from 7.28% last week, the seventh weekly increase and the highest since Nov. 16, 2023, when it was 7.44% (Freddie Mac; FRED). A year ago it averaged 6.30%. The 15-year rose to 6.73% from 6.60%. Thursday's reading covers applications from last Thursday through Wednesday, so it still reflects this week's climb in yields even as the 10-year closed down 6 bp at 5.22% after a solid 30-year auction (Freddie Mac; US Treasury).

Why it matters: If you are buying or refinancing, 7.40% is the survey number lenders and headlines start from. Higher mortgage rates also weigh on homebuilders and rate-sensitive stocks in an S&P 500 fund.

Fed Governor Christopher Waller said that if the data come in as expected, he anticipates "additional hikes" to return inflation to 2%, but "there is some flexibility about when those hikes will occur" and they "do not need to come at consecutive meetings" (Federal Reserve). CME FedWatch, as of about 3:45 AM ET Friday, put the odds of a December hike at 83.0% (67.7% for +25 bp and 15.3% for +50 bp), with an 80.6% chance of no change at the Oct 27–28 meeting (CME). On the long end, Treasury sold $22 billion of reopened 30-year bonds at a high yield of 5.618%, up from 5.308% in September, with a 2.54 bid-to-cover vs. 2.61 last month (TreasuryDirect). Indirect bidders took 72.3% of competitive awards; primary dealers were left with 6.8%, up from 2.2% in September (TreasuryDirect). The 30-year par yield closed at 5.60%, down 7 bp from Wednesday's 5.67%, and the 10-year closed at 5.22%, down 6 bp (US Treasury).

Why it matters: The Fed's rate sets what your money-market fund and high-yield savings account pay. October looks like a pause month; December is still the live debate. September CPI lands Wednesday at 8:30 AM ET (BLS).

WTI settled up 3.6% at $91.49 and Brent up 4.1% at $104.28 after tanker attacks in the Strait of Hormuz and Gulf of Mexico shut-ins tied to Hurricane Isaias (Reuters; Yahoo Finance). US crude is up more than 60% this year on the Iran war, a backdrop the Fed has named as an inflation risk (Reuters; Federal Reserve). Overnight, Brent fell about 1.0% to $103.24 and WTI about 0.9% to $90.68 (Yahoo Finance) after Trump posted that the US "will not be attacking Iran at any time prior to the Midterm Elections" and is having "productive discussions" with Iran (CNBC). Isaias was a Category 2 hurricane with 105 mph winds at NHC Intermediate Advisory 10A (1:00 AM CDT / 2:00 AM ET Friday), about 230 miles south of the mouth of the Mississippi River, with landfall expected within the northern Gulf warning area tonight or early Saturday (NHC). Operators had shut in about 62.9% of current Gulf oil production — roughly 1.3 million barrels a day — as of Thursday, up from about a quarter earlier in the week (CNBC; Reuters, citing the US Marine Minerals Administration). South Korea's market is closed Friday for a holiday; Japan's Nikkei closed nearly flat at 69,031 (−11 pts) (Yahoo Finance; CNBC).

Why it matters: Oil shows up at the pump, in airline tickets, and in the inflation prints the Fed watches. Delta reports before Friday's open with that fuel backdrop in the room.

OpenAI's revenue reset hit the AI trade. For context, CNBC confirmed OpenAI told investors ~$50 billion in annualized revenue at the end of September, below the ~$68 billion figure widely reported last month (FT first). Notice the chip index fell 3.4% and every name on this list dropped more than 2.9%, even as the equal-weight S&P rose 0.6%.

Source: exchange closing prices via Yahoo Finance, Oct 7–8, 2026. SOX = PHLX Semiconductor Index. OpenAI figures per CNBC / FT.

Annualized revenue (or run-rate revenue) takes a recent period's sales and scales them to a full year — often the latest month or quarter × 12 or × 4 — so investors can talk about growth for a private company that does not report like a public one (CNBC; FT). OpenAI's ~$50 billion figure is what it told investors for end-September. The ~$68 billion figure that circulated earlier included partners' gross revenue, a person familiar with the matter told CNBC, which is closer to how Anthropic counts. Same company, different scope. That is why a private update moved public chip and AI stocks yesterday: the AI buildout is priced into names you already own in an index fund, and the market just got a smaller headline number to argue about.

That's the desk. See you Monday at 6 AM ET.

— The Overnight Desk Team

Note: The Overnight Desk Team may hold positions in assets discussed. Nothing here is investment advice. · Sponsor: No one paid for any mention in this issue.