The 10-year matched 2007.

Good morning. The S&P 500 slipped 0.2% Tuesday to 7,670.84 as the 10-year Treasury yield closed at 5.26%, matching its June 2007 high on the daily FRED series (AP; US Treasury). Oil settled lower, consumer confidence sank, and PCE lands at 8:30 AM ET.

Stocks, VIX and yields are Tuesday's close. Oil Tue settles are Reuters. Futures are early Wednesday Yahoo prints. Crypto as of ~11:50 PM ET Tuesday. Nikkei Tue close; Wed morning print in the one-line read.

One-line read: Tuesday priced a higher 10-year into a soft tape. Overnight priced a Tokyo bounce — Nikkei +1.28% Wednesday morning (Mainichi/Kyodo).

The 10-year US Treasury yield closed Tuesday at 5.26% on the official daily par curve, up 2 bp from Monday's 5.24%, and equaled the June 12, 2007 high on FRED's daily series (US Treasury; FRED DGS10). Stocks barely moved: the S&P 500 fell 0.2% to 7,670.84, the Dow 0.3% to 51,349.92, and the Nasdaq 0.1% to 26,797.54 (AP). The Nasdaq-100 still managed a 0.21% gain as chip names led (InvestingLive).

The numbers: The 10-year touched an intraday high of 5.293% — its highest since June 2007 — and the 30-year hit 5.6206%, its highest since June 2002 (Reuters). WTI settled at $89.38 (−3.5%) and Brent at $102.59 (−2.6%) after Middle East export recovery signs (Reuters). Conference Board consumer confidence fell 6.7 points to 81.9, a nearly 12-1/2-year low, versus an 89.0 consensus (Conference Board; Reuters). CME FedWatch put October hike odds at 51.5% after New York Fed President John Williams said one further upward adjustment may be appropriate late this year — down from nearly 70% earlier in the session (Reuters).

Why it matters: The 10-year is the rate mortgage quotes, bond-fund prices and growth stocks inside an S&P 500 fund all copy. Matching 2007 on the yield while the equity tape only slips a few tenths of a percent is the market telling two stories at once. Your 401(k) owns both.

What to watch: Whether the 10-year holds above Monday's 5.24% Treasury close after PCE at 8:30 AM ET, and whether October FedWatch odds stay near 51.5% once the print is out.

Wednesday edition: the print, the earnings, and the overnight vote.

August personal income and outlays, including the PCE price index (the Fed's preferred inflation gauge), arrive with the third estimate of Q2 GDP, per BEA.

Why it matters: When headlines say "inflation," this is the Fed's own scorecard. Mortgage quotes and bond funds both trade on how the market reads it.

Micron hosts its fiscal Q4 call at 4:30 PM ET Wednesday (company calendar). Chip peers led Tuesday's Nasdaq-100 gain.

Why it matters: Your index fund owns the AI memory cycle. Guidance is the line that usually moves the sector more than the reported quarter.

The Nikkei closed Tuesday at 65,481.27 (−0.6%) and was up 1.28% to 66,318.81 Wednesday morning on AI and semiconductor hopes (FRED; Mainichi/Kyodo).

Why it matters: Asia is the first vote after a US yield spike — and a global equity fund owns that vote.

The 10-year just matched its 2007 peak. For context, Monday's Treasury close was 5.24%; Tuesday printed 5.26%, up 2 bp and equal to FRED's June 12, 2007 daily high. Notice the last two weeks: the climb from the mid-4.9%s into the mid-5.2%s is still the rate story setting the stock story.

Source: FRED DGS10 through Sep 28, 2026; US Treasury daily par yield curve for Sep 29, 2026.

PCE is the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index — BEA's measure of what households actually pay for goods and services. The Fed prefers it to CPI because it covers a wider basket and updates spending weights as habits change. Think of CPI as the shopping list you wrote last year, and PCE as the receipt. When PCE lands at 8:30 AM ET, mortgage quotes and bond funds hear it first. Stock funds hear it second.

That's the desk. See you Thursday at 6 AM ET.

— The Overnight Desk Team

Note: The Overnight Desk Team may hold positions in assets discussed. Nothing here is investment advice. · Sponsor: No one paid for any mention in this issue.